Friday, September 29, 2006

Eleven-thiry, and all is well

As of writing at this time, 34 of 465 meetings (7%) have reported, and the numbers are starting to look basically like what people have predicted. Ignatieff has a substantial lead (32.7%), with Kennedy in second (15%) and Rae, Dion, and Brison all near behind (11-12%). Dryden is weaker than expected, but no results are in from Manitoba yet, but he should win there by a landslide.

While we're by no means at the end, and this has the potential to be a hugely skewed sample, this bodes well for Ignatieff. If he performs better than expected and manages to sustain numbers above 30%, he's going to have a lot of momentum going into the convention. Of course, I'm not necessarily expecting this to happen, especially as results come in from Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where Dryden and Rae respectively are especially strong, as well as the other Western provinces more generally, but I'm optimistic at this point that Ignatieff will emerge a clear leader in the minds of the delegates.


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