Friday, September 29, 2006

Some obvious but interesting observations about the DSMs thus far...

The following is a table of the proportions of delegates received as of 1:00AM ET on Saturday morning.

Ignatieff 31.90%
Dion 15.20%


95% lower= 0.261189
95% lower= 0.107469

95% upper= 0.376811
95% upper= 0.196531


Kennedy 15%
Rae 15%

95% lower= 0.105711
95% lower= 0.105711
95% upper= 0.194289
95% upper= 0.194289

Assuming there is no systematic bias in the DSMs that have reported thus far, these numbers show a few things.

First, it is extremely unlikely that Ignatieff will fall below 25%. Second, it is extremely unlikely that any of the main contenders to Ignatieff will rise above 20%. Finally, there is no statistically significant difference yet between Dion, Rae, and Kennedy.

It's going to be a long night...

But thanks to the Liberal Party for their Election Results Ticker. It gives diehards like us a chance to analyze the hell out of irrelevant results.


Blogger Lobster Thermidor said...

Ignatieff's figures are skewed by the university result. He did fantastically on university campuses which all voted yesterday. Overnight, he has been declining steadily from 40% to 27%. I predict he will end up with 24% or so.

8:46 AM  
Blogger Anonymous Liberal said...

It's true that he did disproportionately well on university campuses, but I still don't think he'll end up at 24%. He's still got some very very strong ridings to go, and I don't think he'll move much from the 27% we're seeing now.

9:21 AM  

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