Friday, September 29, 2006

Some obvious but interesting observations about the DSMs thus far...

The following is a table of the proportions of delegates received as of 1:00AM ET on Saturday morning.

Ignatieff 31.90%
Dion 15.20%




15%











95% lower= 0.261189
95% lower= 0.107469




0.105711
95% upper= 0.376811
95% upper= 0.196531




0.194289

Kennedy 15%
Rae 15%





95% lower= 0.105711
95% lower= 0.105711
95% upper= 0.194289
95% upper= 0.194289


Assuming there is no systematic bias in the DSMs that have reported thus far, these numbers show a few things.

First, it is extremely unlikely that Ignatieff will fall below 25%. Second, it is extremely unlikely that any of the main contenders to Ignatieff will rise above 20%. Finally, there is no statistically significant difference yet between Dion, Rae, and Kennedy.

It's going to be a long night...

But thanks to the Liberal Party for their Election Results Ticker. It gives diehards like us a chance to analyze the hell out of irrelevant results.

2 Comments:

Blogger Lobster Thermidor said...

Ignatieff's figures are skewed by the university result. He did fantastically on university campuses which all voted yesterday. Overnight, he has been declining steadily from 40% to 27%. I predict he will end up with 24% or so.

8:46 AM  
Blogger Anonymous Liberal said...

It's true that he did disproportionately well on university campuses, but I still don't think he'll end up at 24%. He's still got some very very strong ridings to go, and I don't think he'll move much from the 27% we're seeing now.

9:21 AM  

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