Some obvious but interesting observations about the DSMs thus far...
The following is a table of the proportions of delegates received as of 1:00AM ET on Saturday morning.
Assuming there is no systematic bias in the DSMs that have reported thus far, these numbers show a few things.
First, it is extremely unlikely that Ignatieff will fall below 25%. Second, it is extremely unlikely that any of the main contenders to Ignatieff will rise above 20%. Finally, there is no statistically significant difference yet between Dion, Rae, and Kennedy.
It's going to be a long night...
But thanks to the Liberal Party for their Election Results Ticker. It gives diehards like us a chance to analyze the hell out of irrelevant results.
| Ignatieff | 31.90% | Dion | 15.20% | 15% | ||||||
| 95% lower= | 0.261189 | 95% lower= | 0.107469 | 0.105711 | ||||||
| 95% upper= | 0.376811 | 95% upper= | 0.196531 | 0.194289 |
| Kennedy | 15% | Rae | 15% | |
| 95% lower= | 0.105711 | 95% lower= | 0.105711 | |
| 95% upper= | 0.194289 | 95% upper= | 0.194289 |
Assuming there is no systematic bias in the DSMs that have reported thus far, these numbers show a few things.
First, it is extremely unlikely that Ignatieff will fall below 25%. Second, it is extremely unlikely that any of the main contenders to Ignatieff will rise above 20%. Finally, there is no statistically significant difference yet between Dion, Rae, and Kennedy.
It's going to be a long night...
But thanks to the Liberal Party for their Election Results Ticker. It gives diehards like us a chance to analyze the hell out of irrelevant results.
posted by Anonymous Liberal at 10:16 PM
2 Comments:
Ignatieff's figures are skewed by the university result. He did fantastically on university campuses which all voted yesterday. Overnight, he has been declining steadily from 40% to 27%. I predict he will end up with 24% or so.
It's true that he did disproportionately well on university campuses, but I still don't think he'll end up at 24%. He's still got some very very strong ridings to go, and I don't think he'll move much from the 27% we're seeing now.
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