Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Is Rae the new front-runner?


He has momentum for the time being, and there are some temptations to suggest that he is indeed the front-runner. Those temptations are more the realm of the media than public opinion; the former is certainly more fickle than the latter.

Does Rae have significant support in Ontario? No. Is he leading in terms of the ex officio support? No. Does Bevilacqua help him much? No (see earlier blog).

I'll grant that the current momentum might give Rae a bit of a boost. But that momentum has to hang around for a while in order for it to be translated into concrete gains at the end of September. As of right now, I'm skeptical that it will.

I will certainly bet on Dion or Ignatieff before Rae. And ask me in a month, and I might even bet on Kennedy. Probably not, but it might happen.

If Rae were to win, it will show a complete lack of practicality on the part of most Liberals. Rae is still deeply distrusted in Ontario, and those 905 ridings which are crucial to the Liberal victory are not something he can deliver.


Blogger Davenport Liberal said...

Rae does have momentum.

It also helps that Greg Sorbara, George Smitherman and Power Corp are backing him, that takes care of the money issue.

The fact that a large number of the forms he submitted at cut-off are in dispute and may be DQ will pose a major issue.

A Rae win will do to the Liberals what the Rae governments legacy did to the Ontatio New Democrats - from power to barely holding on to party status.

If the Liberals lose the 905 and parts of Toronto, we will be rebuilding for a very long period of time.

Good Post!!

12:53 AM  

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