Saturday, September 30, 2006

Some More Confidence Intervals

The following is a table of the proportions of delegates received as of 2:10AM ET on Sunday morning.(235/467 meetings reported)

Ignatieff 30.80%
Dion 17.30%

95% lower= 0.277884
95% lower= 0.148326
95% upper= 0.338116
95% upper= 0.197674

Kennedy 16.30%
Rae 19.30%

95% lower= 0.138905
95% lower= 0.167256
95% upper= 0.187095
95% upper= 0.218744

These numbers have changed quite a bit from yesterday, but so far, no one is outside their 95% range from yesterday. Rae is pretty near the edge, as he made a dramatic climb today.

In any event, as always, these statistics should be interpreted with caution. They only make sense if it's truly a random set of DSMs that have happened, and this clearly isn't the case, as certain regions tend to vote more on certain days.

But anyways, those are the results, as if it were random.

I am now quite ready to say that Lobster Thermidor's prediction that Ignatieff would end up at 24% is complete lunacy.

If Rae stays roughly where he is, i.e. about 2 points above Dion, I think that makes it an Ignatieff-Rae race, where Dion and Kennedy serve as joint kingmakers. Kennedy may gain some momentum tomorrow, however, as several additional GTA ridings return results.

We're getting further, but it still isn't the end yet.

As for me, I've made my appearance at my local DSM. I won't comment on how my race went, but I was planning on being at the convention as either a delegate or an observer, and that hasn't changed.


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