Sunday, October 01, 2006

Wasn't Rae supposed to win Saskatchewan? and other related questions

Now, I ask these questions with only 3/4 of the meetings reported, so of course,the results might still change such that these questions become irrelevant. So, maybe this blog is for nothing. But for now, let's assume it is.

1) Wasn't Rae supposed to be a steam-roller over Saskatchewan? As of right now (9:10PM ET), he's running 4th place, and he has only half the delegates of the front-runner Ignatieff.

2) Wasn't Dryden supposed to be a big winner in Manitoba? Granted, only 1/3 of the meetings have reported here, but he's trailing substantially behind both Rae and Ignatieff, neither of whom was reported to have the extensive network built there that Dryden has.

3) How did Kennedy do THAT poorly in Quebec?
I know his French isn't the greatest, but if Dryden can get 1.5% of the vote and Brison can get 1.2% of the vote, you'd think that Kennedy would be able to get more than 1.2%.

And as a final observation, the fact that Ignatieff is leading in Quebec by a substantial margin (38.2%, with Dion being in second with 28%) means that his foreign policy views do not make him unelectable, contrary to what many people have suggested. Having one view that many in the Liberal Party (though by not by any means all) disagree with does not make you a polarizing factor, provided you are able to build consensus in other ways, which he is.


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